The reawakening of Syria - Chatham House briefing paper
Rime Allaf, July 10, 2007
After riding out the diplomatic and political storm of the last two years, Syria is once again a critical player in the future of the Middle East. The Baathist regime has weathered external pressure from the West, the seeds of civil unrest at home and the loss of its historical position of power in Lebanon. Today the future looks far brighter for Syria as it continues to gain leverage on almost every foreign policy front. This is the major finding of a new briefing paper published by Chatham House.
Rime Allaf, author of the paper, argues that the current positive position Syria finds itself in is seen within the regime as a 'victory of endurance'. More than any other state in the region, Syria feels it has been proved right about regional issues, regardless of its own involvement in them. On all fronts - Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine - Syria feels its previous analysis has been vindicated, and this is strengthening its position within these areas of dispute.
In Iraq, Syrian predictions of the disintegration of the post-Saddam state are proving depressingly close to the mark; Syria is finding itself playing a key role in a country that dominates US foreign policy. In Lebanon, the Syrian regime now sees itself in a position of strength after the devastating popular backlash against it among the Lebanese people over the assassination of Rafic Harriri, and the potential for that unrest to spill onto the Syrian street. And in Palestine, Syria's consistent support for Hamas has made it a pivotal player in Palestine with potentially far more leverage within Gaza than any other Middle East actor.
Finally, the paper argues that the Syrian regime is 'betting' on a number of events happening or positions changing, confident that it need undertake no specific action in the meantime to continue strengthening its position. These 'bets' include: forthcoming regime change in several countries opposed to Syrian influence; continuing problems in getting the UN Tribunal into the assassination of Rafic Hariri started; a return to Syrian influence in Arab affairs to countenance the US-friendly policy of Egypt and Saudi Arabia; a US acceptance of the need for Syrian help in Iraq; the acceptance of Palestinian factions that they need the cooperation of Hamas; and continued popular support for the Syrian regime both internally and on the Arab street.
Read Open for Business: Syria's Quest for a Political Deal.
Notes to editors:
To speak with the author please contact:
Rime Allaf
+44 (0)7713 156531
Sam Hardy
+44 (0) 20 7957 5739
+44 (0) 7946 642 205
ENDS
